Andrey Epifantsev: Moscow will not become a style setter fin the relations with Europeanized Armenia

One of
the pro-Kremlin Russian political exports has recently said that Armenia has stopped being Russia’s  reliable ally. Do you share such a point of view? What grounds and possible consequences
does it have?

To be honest, I should say
that the point was not about that. The point is that  Armenia's
European integration process is certainly leading to a certain conflict of
interests with Russia.
Russia
and the EU are competing policy-makers and have different interests. It is
impossible to be involved in both of them simultaneously the way it was
impossible to simultaneously be a member of NATO and Department of Internal
Affairs during the Soviet time. Armenia's initialing the Association Agreement
with the EU means that Yerevan will delegate the major part of its powers to the
West, switch to Western standards, get flooded with duty-free Western products,
etc. If Russia maintains the
current level of relations with Armenia,
as well as the current level of its participation in Armenia's
affairs and its current support to Armenia, it will find itself in a
foolish situation running counter to its interests. In this case, for an
unknown reason, Russia
will have to be under serious obligations and help its competitor: defend it,
ensure its political interests in the disputed territory, provide it with cheap
energy resources, free arms, finance its economy, host its labor migrants, etc.
The world knows no examples of such absurd relations and I am sure that Moscow will not become a
"trendsetter" here. No one denies Armenia's right to participate in
any integration processes. But no one deprives Russia of the right to react to the
changes in the situation. Naturally, under the new conditions, Armenia will be unable to remain the strategic
ally of Russia and Moscow will have to
considerably decline our countries' relations to the level of ordinary
good-neighborly relations. In practice, this may result in denunciation of the
treaty on military cooperation, abandonment of obligations to defend Armenia, withdrawal of the Russian military base,
transmission from "friendly" to market terms of trade, fixing of
world prices of energy resources, introduction of a visa regime and return of
the Armenian labor migrants to Armenia.  I think that to maintain its political
influence on the South Caucasus, Russia
might consider making its relations with Azerbaijan closer and changing its
stance on Nagorno-Karabakh. 
"However, it is for Armenia
to choose the integration process.

 In November
Georgia and Armenia are going
to initial DCFTA and the Association agreement with the EU. What expectations
do you have from Georgia’s
and Armenia’s
participation in this project?

 The forthcoming initialing of the Association
Agreement and DCFTA will have positive as well as negative consequences for Armenia. Among
the positive consequences we can mention the harmonization of the Armenian
legislation and state processes with the advanced western norms, which will
positively affect the society, fighting corruption, etc. It is very much
possible that the visa regime with the West will be simplified, prices for the
food products, produced in the EU countries, will be decreased in Armenia, etc,  Among the negative consequences is  raising of the general level of prices because
of the growth of tariffs for the energy sources,
the destruction of the local producer which will have no chance to compete with
the western products, the growth of unemployment and migration. As a strict
sample, I can point at the post-Soviet Baltic states and Bulgaria. Look at them, and you
will see you in 3-5 years. Practically, the whole labor pool left Lithuania and Latvia to earn money. If earlier Bulgaria was a well developed agricultural
country, at present it purchases tomato from Turkey. It is funny when I hear
somebody saying that from now on it will be easy to sell Armenian products in
the West. I am sad as Armenian ordinary people are naïve. Actually, Armenia does
not have the products with a prospect to be well sold in the West,  as for the mining industry goods, which may
be really sold, they will be sold without the integration unification. Russia
and the CIS, are the territories where Armenian products may be really sold.
However, after initialing and signing of the Association Agreement with the EU,
it will be harder to do that, as taking into account what has been happening to
Ukraine now, Russia will
start protecting its market from the production of the
business-rival country and from the Western goods which may interfere its
market through Armenia.

Despite
participation in the EU “Eastern Partnership” programme, Azerbaijan seems to lag behind Armenia and Georgia
in the integration projects with Europe. What are the reasons of this lagging?

Azerbaijan
does not at all need participation in the integration programmes with Europe because of many reasons. Azerbaijan has got Turkey
as an integration partner and ally and  Baku will have nobody better than Turkey.
Economically, this country
lives thanks to the pipe, and they can sell oil and gas without joining Europe.  The political
system of Azerbaijan
is based on the
principles which will never let this country join Europe,
and changing of these principles will mean leaving of the present elite and
destruction of its economic prosperity. So, this is not lagging but a
purposeful policy.

 Armenia and Georgia have been striving to
become a part of a single European economic space. Is it possible to reach a
compromise on de-blocking of the Abkhazian sector of the railway, taking into
consideration its importance for the European integration and Armenia’s coming out from the “half
blockade”?

 The Abkhaz railway is of no importance to
European integration. The Association Agreement with the EU can be signed no
matter whether the railway is open or closed. The operation of the Transcaucasus
railway is important for facilitating the communication with Russia and for transporting Armenian cargoes to Russia and vice
versa. However, Armenia's
inclination for the West and the enhancement of the West's role in Armenia's
affairs will reduce this communication and the cargo traffic.

At the moment, the re-launch of this railway needs the
consent and interest of Russia
and Azerbaijan as a country
that has an immense influence on Georgia's decision to open the
railway. "Azerbaijan's
stance is clear - to keep the blockade. Russia's
interest in the railway will also be reduced to nothing after November and Vilnius.  So, one can stop talking of opening of the
railway. 

Let’s
touch on the Middle East affairs. Is it
possible that just Bashar Asad’s supporters used chemical weapon, or the Iraqi
scenario is more possible? How events will develop sonce refusal of Russia and China
to sanction the operation against Syria?

 It is hard
to guess who used chemical weapon. To be logical, I see no reason for its using
by the governmental troops, as they are wining, their number is bigger, they
are well armed, and in many cases the people support them. Why does Asad need
it?  It is more logical that just rebels
used chemical weapon in Syria.
However, here we must not guess. We need international investigation of the
situation even if it will be held after completing of the battle actions in Syria. At
present is very much difficult to predict further development of events. There
are several signs saying that they have already adopted a decision to bomb Syria, but it will be a short-term bombing which
uses cruise missiles, but not a mass and long-lasting bombing as in case of Serbia, and not the land attack as in case of Iraq. It will
practically give nothing to the West but its demonstration as a centre of force
and the world arbiter. I think if bombing of Syria
is short - just a couple of days, Iran will hardly join the conflict.
Taking into consideration their own shaky position within the country, the
authorities of Turkey
will also hardly dare to take part in the active stage of the conflict and will
just limit by aggressive statements and an open support of the countries of the
West.

How
can possible participation of Iran
in the Syrian conflict, if the USA
participates, threat security of the South Caucasus?

Iran's
participation in the Syrian conflict if the Americans start bombing, will
undoubtedly draw nearer the day when Iran
will come forward in a role of Iraq
and Syria.
Anyway, irrespective of Iran's
participation in the conflict or not, if Asad loses and Iraqization of Syria
will take place, Iran will
be the next and the military operation against Iran will be just a problem of
time. Just for this reason, it is very much important for Teheran not to let
falling of Damascus.
Iin its turn, the military operation against Iran
will cause serious changing of the situation in the South
Caucasus. It may have serious consequences - starting the
radiation pollution of the region up to 
thousands of refugees moving to the neighboring countries, and Azerbaijan's
temptation  on the sly to settle the
Karabakh conflict with a help of force. The situation in the region may change
so much that it should be discussed during a separate talk.