Russian expert: Regional leaders to form local bloc amid fading U.S.  interest in South Caucasus

ArmInfo.Regional leaders understand perfectly well that US attention to the South Caucasus has weakened, and they need to build their own structures based on their own interests. Andrei Areshev, political observer and expert at the Strategic Culture Foundation,  made this statement during a Moscow-Yerevan video conference, when discussing what awaits the South Caucasus region amid the conflict in the Middle East.

According to the expert, events surrounding Iran will reverberate for  a long time not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe, and  particularly in the South Caucasus. In this regard, he pointed out  the diplomatic turmoil that has recently been observed in the region,  including Kazakhstan. "This includes Azerbaijani President Ilham  Aliyev's visit to Georgia, his meeting with the Kazakh Foreign  Minister, and then the visit of the Kazakh Foreign and Transport  Ministers to Baku, Tbilisi, and Yerevan. So, as we see, regional  elites and leaders, particularly Aliyev, who is trying to portray  himself as the number one politician, are well aware that American  attention to the region has waned, and therefore they need to build  their own structures based on their own interests. For Azerbaijan,  this means positioning itself as a link between Central Asia through  the Caspian Sea and further to the Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe," the  expert clarified.

Areshev also noted that the point is how far Azerbaijan will go and  how much strength and resources it has, for example, to attract  Kazakhstan or perhaps other countries. "We understand that not only  has the US shifted its focus to Iran and other issues, but Russia is  also embroiled in a protracted conflict, which is also weakening its  attention to the processes unfolding in the Caucasus. In this sense,  attempts to organize some kind of regional bloc are natural, but I'm  not sure they will lead to any clear results. And this tension and  uncertainty, fraught with armed conflict, will, in my opinion,  persist for at least several months, perhaps even six months," the  expert concluded.