Politician: The Moldovan scenario in Armenia will lead to revolution

ArmInfo.  The "Moldovan scenario" in Armenia could trigger a new political upheaval,  according to Suren Surenyants, a politician on the Prosperous Armenia  Party (PAP) election list. He made the remarks during a meeting  between party leader Gagik Tsarukyan and members of the party.

Surenyants argued that the Armenian authorities have already made a  significant misstep during the pre- election period. He criticized  the Prime Minister for placing the four main opposition forces in a  "single" basket, labeling them a "three-headed war party." "Although  it is clear that these forces are very different, with distinct  approaches, programs, and rhetoric, when a government whose  credibility is waning does something like this, it automatically  mobilizes the electorate around the opposition—which is essentially  what has happened," Surenyants said.  According to the politician,  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is now being pushed toward  what he described as another potentially fateful mistake — excluding  one or two major opposition forces from the election race.

Surenyants argued that such a move could backfire amid what he  described as a sharp shift in public sentiment. He noted that a  previously undecided segment of the electorate — estimated at between  40,000 and 50,000 people who did not participate in past elections —  is now determined to take part in the upcoming vote and support one  of the opposition forces.  "It is precisely for this reason that  Pashinyan is currently trying to exclude one or two major opposition  forces from the race," Surenyants claimed.

Surenyants emphasized that if the authorities implement the first  scenario — excluding a single opposition force that crosses the  electoral threshold — his party has a plan B.  "We are confident that  if they specifically target us, a single statement from our leader  will be enough to mobilize our electorate, which is among the most  active," he said.  However, he warned that if a "Moldovan scenario"  is applied — referring to the 2020 Moldovan elections, when the  Central Election Commission disqualified two political forces at the  final stage — it could spark a revolution in Armenia. "Ignoring such  a large segment of the electorate is impossible, especially  considering that the opposition was far more fragmented in the past  than it is today," Surenyants concluded.

It should be noted that ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections  in Armenia, the United States and the European Union have publicly  expressed support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a development  some critics interpret as external involvement in Armenia's domestic  political processes.  At the same time, there are claims that the EU  is not only backing the current government but also promoting the  narrative that Russia is engaged in hybrid activities against  Armenia. The EU has also deployed a mission aimed at assisting  Armenia in "preventing external interference" in the lead-up to the  elections.  However, some independent analysts argue that, in  practice, such assistance could function less as a tool for  countering disinformation and more as a mechanism for restricting  narratives deemed politically unfavorable to the government.

It should be noted that on March 4, Russian Foreign Ministry  spokesperson Maria Zakharova expressed Moscow's readiness to send a  mission similar to the European delegation to Armenia, should Yerevan  request it. On May 28, 2026, she further announced that Armenia had  denied accreditation to several Russian parliamentarians who sought  to observe the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.   Meanwhile, the Central Election Commission confirmed that delegations  from the CIS, OSCE/ODIHR, and PACE will monitor the elections in  Armenia.