Opinion: Following Berlin talks, Baku gains expanded influence within  EU and strengthens cooperation ties with main European powerhouse

ArmInfo.  Following Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev's visit to Germany, relations between Baku and  Berlin are moving beyond the traditional model, which saw Azerbaijan  primarily as an energy supplier. This is the opinion of Sergei  Markedonov, PhD in history, leading researcher at the Center for  Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute of International Studies at  MGIMO University, and editor-in-chief of the journal "International  Analytics."

The political scientist, commenting on the results of Ilham Aliyev's  two-day visit to Berlin, noted that this diplomatic voyage was  well-prepared and planned. He recalled that in April 2025, German  President Frank- Walter Steinmeier made the first official visit by a  German head of state to Azerbaijan. According to Markedonov, although  the presidency is somewhat analogous to the British monarch in  Germany, Steinmeier's strong diplomatic background should not be  forgotten.

"In early December last year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz  invited the Azerbaijani president to visit his country. Six months  later, Ralph Hollermann, the German ambassador who had completed his  diplomatic mission in Baku, effectively announced Ilham Aliyev's  upcoming visit to Berlin at a farewell meeting," the expert  continued.

Speaking about the results of this visit, Markedonov acknowledged  that even if the Azerbaijani leader's trip had been purely protocol  and ceremonial, it would have attracted attention, primarily due to  the scale and significance of Germany in contemporary world politics.  "The European Union's largest economy and the 'engine of European  integration,' one of Ukraine's key allies in the ongoing standoff  with Russia. At the same time, a power rapidly shedding its former  complexes of guilt and responsibility is increasingly declaring its  own ambitions, not only political but also military. What is so  important about the bilateral German-Azerbaijani agenda, in addition  to the cooperative ties between Baku and the EU? First of all, it's  worth noting the start of direct gas supplies from Azerbaijan to  Germany and Austria. The EU as a whole, and Germany in particular,  have declared their rejection of Russian 'energy imperialism.'  However, European democracy also needs to be nurtured," the Russian  political scientist emphasized.

Markedonov is confident that this is precisely why Berlin, like the  EU executive branch, does not criticize Baku for certain aspects of  Azerbaijan's domestic policy. He further noted that during the visit,  Ilham Aliyev and Friedrich Merz signed a joint Declaration on the  strategic agenda for the bilateral partnership.  "Experts call this  format 'energy+.' The document signed in Berlin covers regular  intergovernmental consultations, trade and investment, energy,  transport infrastructure, the defense industry, digitalization,  education, and scientific exchanges. Thus, the relationship is moving  beyond the traditional model in which Azerbaijan was perceived  primarily as an energy supplier," he asserted.

In his words, the Declaration is therefore more of a political  framework. The political scientist acknowledged that the symbolic  elevation of the relationship's status has already taken place, but  its practical content remains to be confirmed by specific projects.  And, he continued, it is clear that Baku will block any attempts to  encroach on its internal national sovereignty. "As for mutually  beneficial business, the Azerbaijani authorities welcome this. And,  unlike its neighbors, Azerbaijan has no aspirations for a 'glorious  European future.' Realism is king; no one talks about 'values.' Baku  gains an expanded channel of influence within the EU, strengthens  cooperative ties with the main European powerhouse, and legitimizes  itself as a key player in the South Caucasus at a time when the  'political West' wants to minimize Russia's influence in this crucial  region. And the Azerbaijani leadership isn't particularly opposed to  this," Markedonov added.

He noted that at a joint press conference with German Chancellor  Ilham Aliyev stated that "his country is ready to replace Russia in  the European energy market, since Moscow is no longer capable of  providing its partners with resources." "Berlin has the bonus of  diversified energy supplies and new opportunities to gain a foothold  in Eurasia. Will all this be fully realized? The question still has  no definitive answer. There are too many variables in the larger  Eurasian and smaller Caucasian equations," the expert concluded.