Expert: Armenia continues to `peel away` from Russian-led  military-political and economic structures

ArmInfo.  Armenia continues to "peel" away from Russian-led military-political and economic structures, the CSTO, and the EAEU, and is also attempting to free  itself from the Russian concession for Armenian Railways. This  opinion was expressed by political observer, Central Asia expert, and  Middle East specialist Arkady Dubnov.

He noted that this conclusion can be drawn from the statements made  by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at a session of the National  Assembly. Dubnov noted that Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia will  soon apply for EU membership, after which the country could hold a  referendum on whether to retain Armenia's membership in the EAEU or  join the EU. The expert recalled that, according to Pashinyan, the  application is necessary "to obtain answers to questions related to  Armenia's possible accession to the EU and to determine the timeline  for the necessary reforms."

"In general, the scope of 'work' is quite substantial, determined by  the Copenhagen criteria for EU accession candidates, adopted back in  1993 at the EU summit in Denmark. There are 10 criteria-political,  economic, and legislative-that are well known, and Armenia does not  currently meet all of them. On the other hand, this spring, Vladimir  Putin, on behalf of four members of the Community-Kazakhstan,  Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Russia-stated that the fifth member of the  EAEU, Armenia, 'should decide as soon as possible whether to  participate in the EU or the EAEU,' in which case a 'soft and  intelligent divorce' is possible. At the same time, he pointed out  how much Armenia stands to lose if it continues its course toward  Europeanization and refuses to cooperate with the EAEU," Dubnov  noted. According to him, this was immediately demonstrated by  Rosselkhoznadzor, which banned the import of Armenian stone fruits  (cherries) and much else into Russia, suddenly discovering weak  phytosanitary control on the Armenian side.

Dubnov, however, noted that these steps by Yerevan did not stop  Pashinyan from continuing his "dissident" activities within the  Moscow-oriented post-Soviet space, causing it some confusion. "This  conclusion is obvious if you listen to the Russian president's press  secretary, betraying some confusion, again explaining to the public  what is well known: Yerevan's application for EU membership does not  mean Armenia will soon join the union. He cited the example of  Turkey, which submitted such an application back in 1987, and the  process, he said, 'has not changed.' But that's not all. In  parliament, Pashinyan also stated that Armenia will not return to  active work within the CSTO within the next five years. He said that  discussions are underway within the CSTO, and the charter allows for  the expulsion of a member state," Dubnov noted.

He recalled that Armenia stopped paying membership dues in 2024,  effectively freezing its participation in the CSTO. "The Russian  Foreign Ministry later noted that such a refusal could lead to  "various scenarios," but "it is unlikely to be expulsion from the  CSTO." Meanwhile, Article 20 of the CSTO Charter provides for the  possibility of expulsion in this case without taking into account the  vote of the person violating the Charter. Apparently, such  indifference on the part of Yerevan to its participation in the  Organization took Peskov by surprise. And then suddenly the Kremlin  discovered that Armenia doesn't need "such an important organization"  and wants it expelled. Basically, this is the position - neither  membership nor rejection: Some kind of Trotskyism, neither war nor  peace. In the entire history of the CSTO, such a situation has never  happened before; only Uzbekistan under Islam Karimov briefly joined  twice, in 1992 and 2006, and then withdrew twice, in 1999 and 2012,  respectively. This, however, did not prevent Tashkent from  maintaining loyal relations with Moscow and retaining freedom of  maneuver in foreign affairs. "politics," Dubnov believes.

However, according to the expert, this is not the end of Nikol  Pashinyan's parliamentary burlesque on August 24. Dubnov noted that  Pashinyan "politely asked his Russian partners to show flexibility"  and sell the concession rights to a third country acceptable to both  Armenia and Russia. "Peskov did not respond to this proposal of  'separation' from Russia. It is not within his authority," Dubnov  concluded.