Yana Amelina: viting U.S. to Nagorno Karabakh will Trigger the Beginning of the End of the NKR and Armenia

Could you please share your impressions from the meetings with out analysts, experts and ordinary citizens? Have they proved the viewpoints popular among some of our Russian colleagues and experts concerning the anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia?

I can say this for sure as I was in Armenia when people were protesting in Baghramyan Avenue. The level of discussions around the problems we voiced at a roundtable in Yerevan showed that the level of the Armenian expert society is much higher than the 'average Russian' one. I am afraid there are no such highly-qualified and impartial experts in Russia to discuss the entire spectrum of the Russian-Armenian relations or hold a detailed discussion on the development trends of the so-called 'Islamic State' at least publicly. Real attitude of Armenians to the Russians and Russia has nothing to do with the stories of the Russian television that whip up tension. My Armenian colleagues brought a big number of facts speaking of the real - though not insurmountable - differences between Russia and Armenia and predicted even deterioration of the situation, if Russia's 'let it all hang out' policy continues. Sure, Armenia's leadership is not insane. They should also be blamed for the given situation. Yet, Russia is also responsible for no positive shifts in the social and economic, public and political fields in Armenia after its Eurasian integration. Hopefully, the situation will change to better. Although there are many West-funded Mass Media and NGOs in Armenia, the anti-Russian sentiments are observed only among part of their members and readers that have little clout in public. However, such sentiments do not concern the Russian people. Nevertheless, to some part, they come from the passivity of Russia that reduces its presence in the Armenian public and information field instead of increasing it

Russia’s policy in the post-Soviet space, particularly toward Armenia, is still based on the security factors. Meantime, joint economic projects and successful economic expansion is what strengthens the influence now, at least look at Germany. The situation with the Electric Networks of Armenia showed how vulnerable are Russia’s positions in the field. What do you think of the prospects of such policy?

The talks that economy decides everything in the present-day world is an attempt to muddy waters just like to make a human being with his great plans to limit itself my eating and sleeping.  Eventually, we will have a 'talking pig' or flat nonsense, in case economy is given an absolute priority.  After all, if economic needs are prioritized, most of the people become simply unnecessary. For instance, look at the situation with the Electric Networks of Armenia that was a result of 'mismanagement' and improper understanding of the political and geopolitical realities, not economy. If dollar costs 30 rubles today and 60 rubles in a week, it bears no relations with economy.  There is just "economy" that does not worth discussion like any other game where the rules are changed by the strongest player. In this light, it is clear that everything is based on the religion and geopolitical interests.  Moscow should stem from these very factors in its actions. As to the 'economic' interests, it is obvious that Russia must stake on Turkey.  It is not within the interests of Armenia to make a point of economic issues, though, the Russian-Armenian relations must be economically attractive too.

At the last joint summit of BRICS, EEU and SCO in Ufa, Russia, President of Armenia Serzh Sargsan has actually invited these organizations in involve in the construction of Armenia-Iran railway that will ensure for the EEU countries an access to the Indian Ocean via the Persian Gulf. What do you think about the project?

This project is quite long-term and technically complicate and quite expensive. So far, the situation in the region is not stable. After all, it is not good time for launching such large-scale projects.

On August 3, Iran and Armenia signed a new contract for the construction of the third power transmission line that will enable the two countries to exchange more electricity. Is it a result of the UN Security Council’s resolution curbing Iran's most sensitive nuclear activities for at least 10 years in exchange for a gradual end to all sanctions on the Islamic Republic? Will this cooperation of Iran and Armenia anyhow affect the Armenian-Russian relations? 

I suppose such large-scale agreements as the one made on August 3 on the construction of the third power transmission line Iran-Armenia and the other that looks to boost the bilateral cooperation between the two countries, especially by Iran, have been discussed for much longer time than it has passed since the Security Council's resolution. Nevertheless, the developing cooperation of Iran and Armenia will create no obstacles to the Russian-Armenian relations, the more so as Russia also weights various options to expand its trade and economic relations with Iran. The attempts of Iran's religious expansion are another matter. However, it does not concern Armenia, while Russia successfully copes with it and will be doing it in future too.

Some Russian media have interpreted the statement by David Tonoyan, the deputy minister of defence of Armenia, on USA’s role in settling the NKR conflict as an "invitation for Washington to Nagorno Karabakh".  Do you share these views?

‘Inviting Washington to Nagorno Karabakh’ - meaning the physical presence of American troops in the conflict zone - will trigger the beginning of the end of the NKR sovereignty, which in turn means the end of Armenia.

It is quite obvious that the U.S. has a pro-Azeri stance in the NKR issue, which is not going to be changed, for the control over a region of the Greater Caucasus is at stake. The Americans are not interested in the NKR or Armenian sovereignty.  It is to be encouraged if enhancing the U.S. presence in the NKR means putting Baku under pressure to compel it to recognize the Nagorno Karabakh independence. However, I think such changes are rather unbelievable and impossible. It is clear that the NKR conflict situation will hardly undergo any changes in the nearest future.