View from  Yerevan: IGG report does not clarify the difference  between the war and the tension. 

ArmInfo. The report of International Crisis Team does not contain any clarification on the  difference between the war and the tension. Such an opinion was stated  to ArmInfo by Alexander Iskandaryan, the Director of Institute for Caucasus. 

On  June 2 the  International Crisis Group published a report on 40  pages entitled as Karabakh sky is covered  by clouds of war.  According to IGG experts, the sides of Karabakh conflict are closer  to war than ever during 20 years passed since the cease fire  agreement was reached. They think also that two key countries of the  region - Russia  and Turkey - will be involved in the conflict as  well. 

 "The analytical part of the report properly reflect the growth of  violence in the region in general, and the higher level of  escalations probability. But there is an absolute lack of proof base  in respect to the high risks of  new war stated in the report. And to  make a conclusion regarding the possibility of new war based only on  qualitative and quantitative growth of escalations is wrong," the  political expert thinks.  At the same time Iskandaryan thinks that  the detailed analysis of the parties military-technical balance  dynamics may lead to a quite opposite conclusion, according to which  the threat of large scale war is now less than a year ago. According  to the expert estimates, the thesis of Russian and Turkish  participation in this war works for that same war risks decrease. 

 "After all, I simply cannot understand how the expert make a  conclusion on war probability based  just  on the growth of tension  at the contact line. War and tension are quite different things,  because there are quite another preconditions, resources and decision  making level  needed to start it. Which is not available today," he  thinks. 

At the same time the political expert considers the growth of tension  as possible but not so probabale, because such a strategy will cost  much to Azerbaijan, which has spent  about USD 20-30 bln during  recent 5-6 years. 

I could suppose that if Baku really were intended to start a war, it  should begin from the combat actions I April 2016.  But Azerbaijani  power did not go for that, and that is never going to happen now,  without any preconditions for large scale war," the political expert  summarized.