Forecast: Under certain conditions, a local armed conflict in Afrin is able to spread to all the territories of Syria inhabited by Kurds

ArmInfo. In certain circumstances, a local armed conflict in Afrin is able to spread to all the territories of Syria inhabited by Kurds.

This opinion was expressed by ArmInfo Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries, security expert Vladimir Evseev. Turkey continues the military operation of the "Olive Branch" in the north of Syria, in the canton of Afrin. The stated goal of the operation is the neutralization by the pro-Turkish armed formations of the "Free Syrian Army" jointly with the Turkish Armed Forces of the Kurdistan Workers' Party militia, the forces of the People's Self-Defense Forces, the Kurdish Democratic Union party and the ISIS militants. According to the estimates of a number of specialists, given the absence of ISIS militants in Afrin, in reality it is a question of the next stage of confrontation between Turks and Syrian Kurds. The reason for the beginning of the military operation by Turkey was the statement of Washington about the creation of 30 thousand forces in the Kurdish-controlled areas of Syria to protect the security of the borders.

"The implementation of this scenario will lead to another destabilization of the situation in Syria, which in the long term is capable of undermining the entire Syrian peace process." In this light, I can not help noticing the already problematic issue of participation of Syrian Kurds in the Congress of the Syrian National Dialogue in Sochi. the knot will only continue to be tightened, "he noted. According to the expert's forecasts, in the conditions of fierce resistance of the Syrian Kurds of the Turkish army, mass mobilization in the northeast of Syria for the defense of Afrin, the "Olive Branch" will inevitably drag out and lead to significant casualties, including from the civilian population. In this light, Evseev predicts the impossibility of Ankara achieving its goals and the Turks' need for peacekeeping assistance to Russia. Yevseyev also noted Moscow's readiness to guarantee Turkey and the Kurds the absence of a mutual threat by restoring Kurdish territories to the work of the Syrian state authorities. According to his estimates, the Syrian Kurds refused this offer under US pressure.

"It is quite natural that in such a situation Russia was forced to withdraw its servicemen from Afrina, while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described American open supplies of modern weapons to Syria and encouraging Kurdish separatism as either a misunderstanding of the whole situation or a deliberate provocation. weapons with the struggle of Syrian Kurds with ISIS.However, the nomenclature of weapons supplied to Syria speaks of several other purposes. and anti-tank missile systems and armored vehicles, "- summed up the security expert.