Expert: Yerevan`s refusal from implementation of Vienna agreements  and Stepanakert`s participation in the negotiations will directly  lead to recurrence of Baku`s April aggression 

ArmInfo.Against the background of the absence of serious discussions around the Vienna agreements, the statements and comments of Armenian Foreign Minister  Zohrab Mnatsakanyan regarding the negotiations with Azerbaijan in the  direction of peace are nothing more than conversations, Director of  the Armenian Center for Strategic and National Studies Manvel  Sargsyan expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

"Meanwhile, these very agreements are extremely important. An  establishment of real political line on the diplomatic path towards  peace is extremely important. Given the lack of clear and decisive  answers from our negotiators to questions regarding the content of  today's negotiation agenda, it seems that Armenia does not have such  a political line. It is also not clear what Nikol Pashinyan intends  to speak on on behalf of Armenia only, on all topics related to the  settlement, or on topics of relevant to Armenia? "wondered the  analyst.

Sargsyan is convinced that in reality the Madrid Principles have  absolutely nothing to do with Armenia, being a subject of discussion  exclusively between Azerbaijan and Artsakh. In particular, and  primarily related to territorial and humanitarian issues. And it is  precisely Armenia's presentation of the problem in this way,  according to his forecasts, can lead to a serious change in the  negotiation status quo, leaving Yerevan outside the main negotiation  agenda.

To recall, the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the co-chairs from  Russia, the United States and France, has been involved in resolving  the Karabakh conflict since 1992. At present, the settlement process  is proceeding on the basis of the Madrid Principles put forward by  the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs in 2007 and the Madrid Principles  updated in 2009, among other things, providing for the deployment of  a peacekeeping force in the conflict zone.

"Yerevan should and can participate in the negotiation process solely  as and, accordingly, in terms of the security guarantor of the  Artsakh people. In this very issue Armenia has and will have problems  with Azerbaijan. And if Ilham Aliyev does not agree to such an  agenda, then he will only have to resort to threats and military  provocations. There is no alternative. And in this case Yerevan  should put forward the Vienna agreements containing elements and  mechanisms for monitoring the situation and punishing the initiator  of the violation of the armistice regime ", he emphasized.

According to the analyst's forecasts, if Yerevan implements such a  clear strategy, Baku will find itself in a very difficult situation,  being unable to explain to the co-chairs its own refusal to Armenia's  proposals, which are a logical continuation of the proposals of the  mediators. Accordingly, it is precisely this, clear line that,  according to his estimates, is capable of fundamentally breaking the  negotiating status quo around Artsakh.

"Unfortunately, for the time being, the Armenian authorities are  proceeding in exactly the opposite way, agreeing not to put a  requirement on the implementation of the Vienna agreements and  Stepanakert's participation in the negotiations in exchange for a  temporary lull on the Line of Contact. Meanwhile, it was Serzh  Sargsyan's similar policy that led to a surge of aggression in April  2016. Accordingly, today it is necessary to draw conclusions from all  of this, and not to repeat the mistakes of our predecessors,  "Sargsyan concluded.