Forecast: The undermining of the South Caucasus will inevitably  entail the undermining of the North Caucasus

ArmInfo. Analyzing all the recent  actions of Azerbaijan on the north- eastern section of the border  with Armenia, one gets the impression that these actions are  completely aimless. It seems that acting in this way, in Baku they  themselves do not know what, in fact, they want to achieve. Head of  the Center for Globalization and Regional Cooperation Stepan  Grigoryan expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

"It seems that if Azerbaijan really has problems related to Artsakh,  then logically the Azerbaijani army should solve the problem in the  direction of Artsakh. Although there they would inevitably receive a  powerful response similar to that of Tavush. However, to conduct  positional battles on the border with Armenia, to stir up the South  Caucasus - the CSTO's area of responsibility, in my opinion, is very  dangerous and unproductive, 'he stressed.

Confirmation of this thesis, the political scientist considers the  concern expressed in the context of Azerbaijan's destabilization of  the situation in the region by Russia and Iran. In his opinion, today  everyone already understands that the goal of Baku is to destabilize  the South Caucasus. And this is a deadly prospect for Moscow, since  the undermining of the South Caucasus will inevitably entail the  projection of instability onto the already tense North Caucasus.

Grigoryan assesses all the recent actions of Ilham Aliyev as the  actions of an overly nervous man, who was captured by his own  promises to his own people. The impossibility of realizing these  promises, the progressing corruption, social tension, according to  the political scientist, could well have prompted Aliyev to try to  find a splash of all these phenomena in Tavush.

At the same time, Baku and Ankara, in his opinion, are planning to  "dock" the region with the Middle East through its destabilization.  The goal is to bring the process of settling the Artsakh problem out  of the monopoly jurisdiction of the OSCE Minsk Group to a broader  platform. "At the same time, I do not think that any countries or  organizations will wish to shoulder the burden of settling our  long-standing conflict.  The Minsk group will remain. The whole  question is whether it will be effective, especially in the context  of the coronavirus pandemic, "he said.

Aliyev, according to the political scientist, obviously suffered  defeat and today is trying to mitigate its consequences for himself.  The resignation of Elmar Mamedyarov and, in the near future, perhaps  the Minister of Defense Zakir Hasanov, is clearly from this opera.  "Aliyev needs those responsible for his own defeat. The leadership of  Azerbaijan is in deep stress and in this state is capable of any  mistake.  Accordingly, we should be extremely vigilant. At the same  time, I do not predict the enemy's activity in the Artsakh and  Nakhchivan directions. First, Baku must digest the last defeat. For  this reason, the situation will be relatively calm for some period,  "the political scientist summed up.