Azerbaijani political scientist: Today, Russia has beaten Pashinyan  with the hands of Azerbaijan, but there are no guarantees of a change  of actors

ArmInfo.Today, there are differences in Azerbaijani-Russian relations, which are most likely related to the issue of the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping  contingent in Karabakh, which officially has no legal justification.  

This opinion was expressed on April 6 at the discussions organized by  the Article-3 club by the head of the Department of Conflictology and  Migration of the Institute for Peace and Democracy (Baku), a  well-known political scientist Arif Yunusov.  According to him, a  vivid evidence of this is the topic related to "Iskanders"replicated  in the Azerbaijani media. "Do you think that in February, Ilham  Aliyev defended Pashinyan on the Iskander issue? No, he really needs  it. 

Then he supported the Russian side, because it was not profitable to  discredit Russian weapons. And now, the processes that we observe on  the issue of Iskanders in the Azerbaijani media indicate that there  are problems in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Somewhere, Aliyev and  Putin did not agree, and I do not rule out that the issue of  peacekeepers is at stake," the expert said, pointing to the  significant role of Russia in regional processes.  At the same time,  he also touched upon the topic of mine maps and prisoners of war,  expressing his conviction that both issues are being speculated on by  both Azerbaijan and Armenia. "Armenia-when it says that the British  specialists allegedly handed over maps of minefields to the Turkish  special service, and Azerbaijan-when it accuses the Armenian side of  unwillingness to provide maps. But, as a person who has worked in  this industry, I can say with confidence that there are no clearly  developed maps. Especially during the last war, when the processes  were very fast. 

I don't think that someone sat and drew maps," Yunusov said.   According to him, this also applies to the issue of prisoners of war.   He pointed out that it was obvious that this issue was being used for  bargaining. "Everyone understands that sooner or later Azerbaijan  will return all the prisoners of war, but it will do it in exchange  for something. And it is clear that this issue will be resolved in  favor of Aliyev, who will get what he wants, " Yunusov said, while he  pointed to the lack of leverage on Azerbaijan from major  international players, such as the United States or the EU. The  expert believes that today only the Russian side has such mechanisms.   Speaking about the future role of the OSCE Minsk Group, the  Azerbaijani expert stressed that of course it will be, but its  influence today or for example tomorrow will not be so significant,  but the situation may change in the future, and it is quite possible  that its weight will increase.

He is also convinced that Russia was well aware of the impending war,  and this was the implementation of the so-called Lavrov plan. "At the  same time, Moscow marked clear red lines for which it was not allowed  to cross - this line was Shushi. Today, Russia has beaten Pashinyan  with the hands of Azerbaijan, but there is no guarantee that  tomorrow, Azerbaijan will not be beaten with other hands. Especially  when the unresolved issue of the status of the peacekeeping  contingent is at stake, " the expert asked, adding that it is naive  to think that the conflict has been resolved. 

According to him, it is not resolved and will not be resolved for  many years to come, and the main thing here is that there is no new  war.  In general, Yunusov called the processes that are currently  taking place around Karabakh positive. He noted the importance of  continuing the negotiations, which are currently being carried out at  several levels.  "The first level is geopolitical - the OSCE Minsk  Group. Negotiations in this format have stalled a bit today. But you  need to understand that there is a hidden part of the iceberg for the  negotiation process. 

Yes, the leader of Azerbaijan says one thing, they say that the  mediation mission is not effective, it has outlived its usefulness,  but you need to understand that this is aimed at an internal  audience, and there is a hidden part that is more important. It lies  in the fact that there is an OSCE Minsk Group, and it has not  disappeared anywhere, just for a number of reasons, Europe and the  United States have shown passivity. But we see that the Americans  have already become more active, and this will continue, " the expert  said.  The second level, according to him, is the Armenia -  Azerbaijan-Russia trilateral format, which is currently the most  active.  

"And the third level - no one pays attention to it, but for me it is  the most important. Azerbaijan has been emphasizing since 1994 that  negotiations should be conducted exclusively between Armenia and  Azerbaijan. But now the situation has changed, and the parties  voluntarily or unwittingly need to resolve many socio-economic  issues, and now confidential negotiations are underway between  Azerbaijan and Karabakh. Two such meetings have already been held in  the north of Karabakh. And I think this process will continue, "  Yunusof said, adding that of course, today there are many questions  and ambiguities, the parties have too different approaches, and this  does not allow us to speak confidently about the future, but now  there are invisible contacts.

"This is not a simulation of the process, as it was before. Now there  are intensive negotiations, and between the parties. And I think the  result of these contacts was the visit of Ilham Aliyev to Shushi. We  all understand perfectly well that he got there on the way through  the Red Bazaar, which means that security guarantees were reached  with the Armenian side in exchange for something. For example, it is  foolish to believe that the Lebanese Armenian woman was returned  immediately after Valentina Matvienko's call. Such issues are  resolved at a different level, " the expert concluded.