Armenian side could turn Azerbaijan`s aggression into its diplomatic  nightmare - Luys Foundation

ArmInfo. Armenia's greatest diplomatic failure in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process in the wake of the 44- day war was the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk  Group, which resulted in the loss of what had been achieved during  decades of negotiations. Besides the geopolitical preconditions, the  incumbent Armenian authorities' incompetent foreign policy is to  blame as well, reads a statement by the Luys Foundation.  

Negotiations with Azerbaijan outside the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as  discussion on Artsakh and the so-called "peace agreement" on other  platforms, were aimed to end the OSCE MG's activities, with all the  ensuing consequences. 

"Azerbaijan's latest aggression has shown once more that state is  incapable of honoring any agreements, unless certain supervision is  exercised. The major international actors' reaction to the latest  developments is evidence that the new escalation in the region is  only in the interests of the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, with no  superpower interested in it," the statement reads. 

In this context, the Luys Foundation singled out a number of points: 

France has proposed a meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss  the Armenian-Azerbaijani border escalation; Ned Price of the U.S.  Department of State called on the United States and Russia to use its  influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan to de-escalate the situation;  Denis Gonchar of the Russian foreign office stated that by means of  the OSCE Minsk Group Paris is signaling its readiness to resume  contacts. These most important statements and actions open up new  opportunities for counterattacks for Armenian diplomacy. 

The Luys Foundation is sure that the U.N. Security Council and other  international venues needs to be used to explain to the international  community that Azerbaijan is unwilling to honor any of its  international agreements with Armenia without serious international  supervision by the United States, Russia and France (as well as other  permanent members of the U.N. Security Council).  Therefore, the  so-called "peace talks" can only be effective if mediated and  guaranteed by the international entities in question. 

 "The international community, especially the OSCE Minsk Group  co-chairing, should be convinced of the following truth: the agendas  of the Armenia- Azerbaijan relations and Artsakh problem need to be  united and discussed as one package. Life has shown that a final  settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is impossible  without a comprehensive settlement of the Artsakh problem, and  Azerbaijan's incessant aggression against Armenia is inevitable. 

Armenia should refuse to negotiate a "peace agreement" with  Azerbaijan on other platforms, such as the Samarkard Summit of the  Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) or the Informal meeting of  heads of state or government, in Prague, on October 7, 2022. 

The U.N. General Assembly is holding a session in the coming days,  and Armenia could address letters to each of the OSCE MG co-chairing  countries and request the revitalization of the OSCE MG format to  propose an initiative of an Armenian-Azerbaijan mediated by the OSCE  MG, which would be aimed at resuming the negotiations on a "peace  agreement" interrupted by Azerbaijan's latest aggression. Even if  Azerbaijan rejects a proposal for such a meeting, the Armenian side's  meeting with the three co-chairs could give a most important  diplomatic impetus to the process. Armenia could propose that the  co-chairing countries reiterate their positions on the key points of  the OSCE MG's heritage, particularly on the Madrid principles. Try to  revitalize the agreements reached in Vienna and Saint Petersburg in  2016, which provide for border incident monitoring mechanisms, which  was lost as a result of great diplomatic failures in 2018-2020. 

What are the prospects?

"Of course, amid the Russia-USA geopolitical confrontation and the  situation in Ukraine, Russia and USA can hardly be encouraged to hold  diplomatic contacts and reach consensus. But the three aforementioned  statements inspire some hope of success. The sides are obviously  aware of each other's role in the matter, and the revitalization of  the OSCE MG will enable them to revitalize at least this last  diplomatic channel, which is highly important for managing the  Ukraine crisis to prevent it from getting out of control. 

"Revitalizing the OSCE MG format will enable the United States to  return to the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, while Russia will be  able to avoid a military escalation and opening of a 'second front.'  The EU, represented by France, will be interested as well as - a new  military conflict in the region will even exacerbate the energy  crisis in Europe, especially in the context of the EU's hopes for  energy resource supplies from Azerbaijan and Central Asia, which  could be stopped ishould a full-scale war break out in the region,"  the statement reads. 

Azerbaijan's aggression against Artsakh in 2016 ended up in a  diplomatic failure for it, followed by the Vienna and Saint  Petersburg agreements and Ilham Aliyev's confession that he was  persuaded into recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh behind closed doors.  Although in contrast to 2016 the geopolitical situation in the region  is essentially different, to the Armenian side's disadvantage,  opportunities are still available and missing them would be  unpardonable. 

"Of course, there is no guarantee the process will be a complete  success, especially with the incumbent authorities, which are  incapable of effective diplomacy and maneuvering to their  geopolitical benefits. In other words, even if the proposed  diplomatic configurations fail, it will most probably be the result  of the authorities' failure, but not the result of poor ideas or  unfavorable geopolitical factors. 

"Nonetheless, this is one of the few opportunities to be seized for  at least a minimal diplomatic victory to be gained, to ease the pain  of irreparable human and territorial losses as a result of  Azerbaijan's aggression."