Russian expert: There are anchors holding back Iran and Azerbaijan  from war, although there is discontent

ArmInfo.Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have been complicated for 30 years, and they have developed along a sinusoidal pattern.

There are things that Iran does not like  systematically. This was stated by Sergey Markedonov, Candidate of  Historical Sciences, Leading Researcher at the the Euro-Atlantic  Security Center  of the MGIMO Institute for International Studies of  the Russian Foreign Ministry, in Yerevan, at the conference  :"Diplomacy - Alpha: Challenges of the Present and the Vision of the  Future", in response to ArmInfo's question about the likelihood of a  new escalation of the situation in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh  conflict and the possible involvement of Iran in it.

"There are things that Iran systematically dislikes, and this, in  particular, concerns cooperation with Israel, a landmark agreement,  economic cooperation with Western companies. And in general, an  important point for Iran is that: the problems of the Caucasus should  be solved by the neighboring countries, plus the countries of the  region. There should be no foreign players here, be it Israel, theUS,  etc.," Markedonov said.

At the same time, he urged to recall the situation two years ago,  when the Azerbaijanis set up a checkpoint on the Goris-Kapan highway  and Iranian truckers began to face problems. "At that time, every day  they wrote about the war. I think there is some kind of devaluation  going on. No need to shout "Wolves!  Wolves!>, it ends badly. Iran  and Azerbaijan have systemic problems, and they are connected,  firstly, with international formats>, the Russian expert believes.

As for Azerbaijan, he continued, there are some concerns that the  Iranian theocratic model will somehow enter Azerbaijan, where the  majority of the population is Shiite.

Markedonov is convinced that this is an important deterrent. At the  same time, he added that the idea of war is not popular in  Azerbaijani society, especially in the southern part of the country.

"I rather think that there are anchors that will prevent the parties  from war, although there is discontent," the expert said.    <He does not want a change in borders, whether by the West, Russia or anyone else.  At the same time, Markedonov stressed that Iran is a  status-quo country, a classic conservative country. <It does not want  a change in borders, whether by the West, Russia or anyone else. It  did not recognize Kosovo, did not recognize Abkhazia, and South  Ossetia, and new territories that from Ukraine became part of Russia. 

Iran did not recognize Karabakh either. There are hopes that it is  pro-Armenian. Iran is pro- Iranian, and it could not be otherwise.  Iran was very skeptical about the NKR, although there were certain,  informal relations with it, without recognizing its independence. It  will also be skeptical if there is "Karabakhization" of the Armenian  territories>, he noted.  At the same time, the political scientist  expressed his conviction that the likelihood of a new escalation in  the region always remains.  Regarding Russia's obligations under the  tripartite agreement dated November 9, 2020, the expert expressed his  conviction that the Russian side fulfills the declared obligations in  the agreement. He agreed that it may not be completely, but there are  circumstances for that. < There is a certain priority issue. This  does not mean that the Caucasus has left the sphere of Russian  interests, but now there are big stakes on Ukraine, more decisive  issue than the Caucasian one >, he added. At the same time, the  political scientist stressed that there are concerns that if a second  front opens, it will not be in the interests of not only Russia, but  primarily Armenia itself.