Iran, Russia have some mutual interests in South Caucasus, but they  are not allies - Mehdi Sobhani

ArmInfo.  In the volatile  Caucasus region, Russia and Iran, often seen as united in their aims,  are vying to secure trade routes and influence. That leaves Western  countries facing an unusual dilemma, reads an article in the The  New  York Times.  

Russia's domestic intelligence agency patrols the meandering river,  alongside cameras, watchtowers and three rows of barbed-wire fencing.

But Russia itself is almost 200 miles away. And by January, the  Russian officers will start leaving.

This is the border between Iran and Armenia, a 30-mile strip that is  a pivot point of a head-spinning geopolitical shift. Here in the  Caucasus, the mountainous region where Europe meets Asia, Russia and  Iran are increasingly seen as rivals, while Western countries are -  surprisingly - finding some common cause with Tehran.

This complex, multicountry knot of interests and influences  challenges Western conventional wisdom about alliances and could be  upended yet again by the re-election of Donald J. Trump in the United  States.

In a rare interview last week, Iran's ambassador in Armenia, Mehdi  Sobhani, acknowledged the diverging interests of Russia and Iran in  the region, rather than the "strategic partnership" they often  profess, banding together against the United States.

"We are not allies," Mr. Sobhani said. "We have some differences, and  we have some mutual interests. It doesn't mean that we are allied."

Armenia, a majority-Christian democracy, is at the center of the  Russia-Iran rivalry. It is also unsettled by the prospect of renewed  war with its archenemy, Azerbaijan, which is taking a major step on  the world stage this week by hosting global leaders for the annual  United Nations climate conference known as COP.

In the last year, Armenia has looked to Iran, its southern neighbor,  as the main guarantor of its sovereignty, while Azerbaijan, a  majority-Muslim, secular autocracy, has been deepening military ties  with Iran's own nemesis, Israel.

Russia is racing to contain Iran's expanding influence in Armenia, a  former Soviet republic at a crossroads of trade routes that Moscow  needs to replace Western imports. Complicating matters, some Western  countries currently in conflict with Iran see their interests in the  Caucasus - preventing war and reducing Russian influence - aligned  with those of Tehran.

Markus Ritter, who heads a European Union mission monitoring  Armenia's borders, said the Iranians "are here in the region, the  best friends of the Armenians." While Russia and Azerbaijan bristle  at the European presence, he said, Iran seems to accept it. "It's very complicated here," he notes.

In the coming Trump presidency, Armenians fear, a harsher U.S. policy  toward Iran could ricochet against their country and embolden  Azerbaijan. If the current conflict between Iran and Israel, fueled  by the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, escalates into a full-scale war,  they also worry that Tehran would be less able to protect Armenia.

Until recently, many Armenians saw Russia as their guarantor. Russia  was a haven during the Armenian genocide a century ago. After the  Soviet Union's fall, Russia kept a military base in Armenia and  guards at its borders. In 2020, when Azerbaijan waged a 44-day war  against Armenia to retake the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, the  mediation of President Vladimir V. Putin and the deployment of  Russian peacekeepers brought the fighting to an end.

But then Russia invaded Ukraine, leaving it distracted and weakened  in the Caucasus. When Azerbaijan last year again attacked  Nagorno-Karabakh - a breakaway Armenian enclave within Azerbaijani  territory - Russian forces stood by and later departed. 

The latest round of tensions over the region's future revolves around  a thin strip of Armenian land, Syunik Province, snaking south to the  border with Iran. The road from Yerevan, the capital, passes berms,  machine gun nests and Armenian flags on hilltops. It is bounded on  both sides by Azerbaijani territory.