Russia`s influence in post-Soviet area, South Caucasus to go on  decreasing - expert 

ArmInfo.Russia's influence in the post-Soviet space, and especially in the South Caucasus,  continues to decline: this is a global process that will continue to develop.  This was stated in an interview with ArmInfo by political scientist, director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan.

The expert noted that the decline in Russia's influence is a  long-term process that has been observed for several years. Signs of  this phenomenon are manifested in various areas.

He emphasized that under the current conditions, Russia does not have  the opportunity to focus on the South Caucasus. And even if the  conflict in Ukraine is resolved, Russia's return to its previous  influence in the region looks unlikely due to the loss of the  necessary tools.

"You can't enter the same door twice. Even if Ukraine ceases to be a  hot topic, it is impossible to imagine Russia's return as a single  strategic force in the South Caucasus. This is the result of the  Second Karabakh War, which has already happened," the expert noted.

Touching on relations between Russia and the United States in light  of the change of leadership in Washington, Iskandaryan noted that it  is difficult to predict further developments, given the  unpredictability of President Donald Trump and the differences  between his statements and actual actions.

"I cannot say how the situation will develop further. Of course,  sooner or later Trump will talk about suspending the war in Ukraine.  It is interesting that of the major powers, he speaks more  respectfully only about the leaders of India and Russia. This is  unusual for modern discourse, and therefore it is impossible to  predict how Russia will react to it. However, we must understand that  for Russia at the moment it is not the most convenient time to  suspend the war, since we are seeing its successes. In my opinion,  Russia does not have any intention of ending the conflict. We will  monitor the development of events," noted the director of the  Caucasus Institute. 

In this vein, touching on the South Caucasus, Iskandaryan expressed  the opinion that the United States does not have, has not had, and  will not have a strategy and policy towards this region. At the same  time, as the political scientist explained, a change in the US  position could indirectly affect the situation in the South Caucasus.  "If American policy regarding Iran, the Middle East or Ukraine  changes, it could affect the situation in the South Caucasus.  However, I do not think that the US aims to develop any specific  policy in this region," Iskandaryan concluded.  Meanwhile, let us  recall that the expert community in Armenia is largely unanimous in  the opinion that Artsakh played an important role for Russia as an  unrecognized but significant subject in the region's politics. It was  necessary in order to influence Azerbaijan and have certain  instruments of influence in Armenia. This interaction has always been  interdependent: problems on one side immediately affected relations  with the other. Artsakh served as a powerful instrument of influence,  not only as a territory populated by Armenians, but also as a  political subject in the person of the unrecognized Nagorno- Karabakh  Republic. With the disappearance of this subject, as well as the  people who lived there, Russia lost effective levers of influence on  both Armenia and Azerbaijan, which from this point of view were a  kind of "Siamese twins" in politics. The overwhelming majority of  experts in Armenia are unanimous in their conviction that Russia's  unilateral choice of Azerbaijan as its support in the region turned  out to be a deeply erroneous foreign policy strategy, which is  already leading to a significant loss of influence by the Russian  Federation in both countries.