Anticipated decrease in Russia`s influence in the South Caucasus may  not materialize as expected - Andrey Areshev

ArmInfo. Armenia's simultaneous membership in both  the European Union and the Eurasian  Economic Union is practically impossible, as stated by Andrey Areshev, an expert at the Gorchakov Fund, during the discussion  " EAEU or EU. Armenia's choice in the context of shaping new global order".

According to him, Yerevan fully understands both this fact and  Brussels' reluctance to launch any European integration process  outside the framework of certain programs. "This is what European  officials are actually saying, claiming that the issue of Armenia's  accession to the EU is not on the Union's agenda.  In my opinion,  this issue is purely internal and political in nature," the expert  said, pointing to  RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent  statement regarding the potential for alternative food supplies to  the EU.

 "This statement raises many questions, especially considering the  significant amount of Russian agricultural products supplied to the  republic. Such statements are superficial and not adequately  developed, creating some discord into Armenian-Russian relations,  especially in light of the frequently heard statements about the  inviolability of Yerevan's membership in the EAEU and the positive  progress with this structure and in relations between Armenia and the  Russian Federation," Areshev emphasized.

He noted that expectations of a reduction in Russia's economic and  political presence in the South Caucasus region, given the profound  changes observed today may not be justified. In this case, Areshev  continued, we are talking about Russian-American high-level political  consultations. Given the current events, it is essential for Armenia  to avoid making any hasty decisions that could  further deteriorate  economic ties with the countries of the EAEU and the Russian  Federation,  which benefit all parties involved. "It is evident that  both Moscow and Yerevan value the existing ties. The Caucasus region  holds significant importance for Russia. Shifting towards EU  countries is a manipulative tactic aimed at a domestic audience,  potentially leading to  shifts in public opinion in Armenia and  Russia," Areshev noted.

 He emphasized that the issue of Armenia's choice between Eurasian  and European integration did not arise overnight. It began to take  shape in 2013, when Armenia tried to follow a complementary course.  This course led to the signing of the Comprehensive and Enhanced  Partnership Agreement between Armenia and the EU in 2017, under the  leadership of the third President of the Republic of Armenia Serzh  Sargsyan.  However, in 2018, with Nikol Pashinyan  coming into power,  a new phase gradually unfolded. At the initiative of a number of  parties and public organizations, discussions began regarding the  possibility of holding a referendum on the country's potential  accession to the EU. This has been an ongoing issue, to which the  Russian side responded quite specifically," the Russian expert said.   He pointed out the controversial processes taking place in Europe  today, with a clear example being the elections in Germany, where  right-wing radical parties are gaining momentum. "The buffoonery  staged by Donald Trump, who, along with his team, is both a  revisionist and a globalist at the same time, shows that the United  States will assert global dominance in one form or another. The goal  of this administration is to worsen relations between Russia and  Europe, posing a challenge for the Russian Federation and its  partners, including Armenia and various Eurasian integration  associations," the expert clarified, highlighting the Turkish factor  in this matter.

 He emphasized that the processes taking place in the region and the  statements of RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan indicate Yerevan's  intentions to integrate its policy into Turkish-Azerbaijani  integration, which, to some extent, also aligns with the interests of  the EU. The same Middle Corridor and other infrastructures that  bypass Russia are linked to the EU's intentions to establish  diversified communication corridors. "Taking all these factors into  account, it would be unwise for Armenia to pursue a course that would  further deteriorate relations with Russia," Areshev stated.