After war in Ukraine ends, Russia to reclaim its status as dominant  player in  South Caucasus region - political scientist

ArmInfo.  Political scientist and senior researcher at APRI Armenia Benjamin Poghosyan believes that the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue for at least another year, which means that for the South Caucasus, the current status quo will be maintained. The political scientist stated this during the  discussions on " South Caucasus Security  in the Context of   Russia-US Dialogue".

According to Poghosyan, since 2022, there has been a tendency of  weakening Russia's positions in the South Caucasus. However, this  does not mean that the Russian Federation is leaving the region.  Russia still maintains a military base in Armenia, and Russian border  guards remain active in certain border areas.  "Nevertheless, the  Russian Federation's position in our region is weakening, and in my  opinion, this has become especially acute after the purge of the  Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh, which was the biggest blow  to Moscow. It is expected that by the end of this year, the borders  of Armenia will no longer be guarded by Russian border guards. With  Russia's gradual withdrawal from the region, Turkey will become the  largest external player. If military operations in the  Russian-Ukrainian theater continue, Moscow's position in the South  Caucasus will continue to weaken," the political scientist believes,  adding that Turkey will become the No. 1 player in the region, and  Russia will become the No. 2 player.

However, according to the political scientist, if the war in Ukraine  comes to an end by the end of this year, Russia will gradually but  surely start to restore its weakened positions. "Over the past three  years, the collective West has been trying to undermine Russia's  strength, but they have not been successful, which ultimately speaks  of the Russian Federation as a powerful state. Once the conflict in  Ukraine is resolved, Moscow is likely to reclaim its status as the  dominant player in our region," the political scientist noted.