Early elections in Armenia, from the point of view of Trump and  Aliyev, will mean Pashinyan s attempt to avoid fulfilling his  obligations: Political scientist

ArmInfo. Azerbaijan and the United States have achieved their desired outcomes and now will not "let go" Nikol Pashinyan until he fulfills his promise "on the  ground", according to Vahe Hovhannisyan, a member of the Alternative  Projects Group.

"The topic of early elections is being discussed impulsively and is  not receiving a final decision, hanging in the air. Why is this so?",  the expert asks. "In a country where one person can make  any  decision convenient for him without resistance, why should he  hesitate on this issue or take into account other people's arguments  that go against his own interests. Most likely, there are reasons for  this>, he adds. As Hovhannisyan notes, after the visit to Ankara, the  meeting in Abu Dhabi and, most importantly, the signings in  Washington, a new reality has emerged. This raises the question: is a  decision on early elections being made in Yerevan?

Undoubtedly, a narrow circle of people in power will want early  elections, and they have their reasons for this.  1. There is a  certain post-doc background, "the legend of the peace brought", and  it is strong while it is fresh. Why delay?  2. The authorities have  filled the prisons with activists, roughly speaking, they have moved  activism from the streets to prisons. But this cannot last forever,  "the shock of terrorism" has already passed, and the trials are  starting to work ion favor of the defendants.  3. New potential  forces have not yet formed, and it would be logical to hold elections  without them.  It seems that these three points alone are sufficient  for the government to consider early elections (although this does  not guarantee success either, but the next elections will likely be  much more challenging). Despite this, the government has not yet made  a decision. There seems to be something important  holding back and  blocking this process",  the political scientist writes.

Looking at this at the upside, Vahe Hovhannisyan notes that after the  Washington agreements, for the other two participants in the process,  especially Trump, early elections would mean out of the  agreements.  The Trump administration will say: you signed, and you  have a year ahead, work hard to implement what you signed. A lot can  be accomplished in a year. Just imagine Trump's reaction if, right  before the Nobel Prize ceremony, the person who signed the paper with  him, with great pomp announces early elections and, most likely,  leaves his post. Therefore, the American side will strongly oppose  early elections>,  the expert believes.

In the case of Aliyev, the situation is almost the same, of course,  with some peculiarities. "The arguments of a narrow circle of people  in power, who have worked well for several years, are now losing  their relevance for Aliyev. It is at this point that the situation  changes. Nikol will say: let's hold early elections so that I can  reproduce myself and start working. But Aliyev has already received  everything he wanted on paper. He is no longer interested in Nikol's  reproduction, but in the implementation of the agreements that were  made. A year is enough time to make many things irreversible and see  them through to completion.

To Nikol's counterargument that if this happens again, I may not be  elected, they silently reply: this is your problem. Aliyev and Trump  have achieved what they wanted on paper, and now they are insisting  that the signatory from the Armenian side begins implementing it,  Hovhannisyan notes. He believes that if Nikol Pashinyan used to say:  "If I am not there, you will not get what you want", now everyone has  got what they wanted. "They no longer want just a signature, but the  active implementation of what was signed.  These are completely  different things, and they want the implementation of both the  agreements published and unpublished this year. They are not  interested in Nikol's personal comfort or his personal prospects.   And, of course, all of them together are not  interested in the  interests and desires of Armenia and its real people," Vahe  Hovhannisyan concludes.