Orientalist on protests in Iran: Armenia must prepare for "spillover"  as Iran protests escalate

ArmInfo.  Although the likelihood of the Iranian regime remaining stable amid the protests  that have erupted in Iran remains quite high, Armenia should remain  an active observer and prepare for the worst, as noted by orientalist  Sergey Melkonyan in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent,  speaking about the protests that erupted in Iran on December 28  following the collapse of the Iranian rial and soaring food prices.  In response to the situation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the  Islamic Republic of Iran, in a statement on December 8, condemned  "hypocritical statements by American officials" regarding domestic  events in Iran, calling "the US position of maximum pressure,  threats, and interference in Iran's internal affairs aimed at  inciting violence and terrorism, as well as creating unrest and  instability in the country."

Reacting to the situation, Melkonyan pointed out that the Iranian  leadership has a history of successfully resisting large-scale  external interventions. He mentioned that previous similar  interventions in Iran's affairs had actually backfired. "Instead of  achieving goals related to regime change or its collapse, as they are  formulated in Israel or the United States, Israeli strikes, supported  by American and other allies, led to the consolidation of society  around the regime in the face of external threat," the orientalist  recalled.

Therefore, according to the expert, the consequences could vary  significantly. For example, as Melkonyan noted, the protests could  continue to spiral, and then an external attack would be directed not  at the security system, but, for example, at the locations of the  political leadership. The orientalist noted  that the protests in  Iran initially had a socio-economic basis and only gradually  transformed into politically oriented ones, with demands for regime  change in some regions of the country.

According to Melkonyan, there are two main scenarios for how the  situation would unfold. "First, the regime remains intact, and the  leadership maintains its position. In this case, two sub-scenarios  are possible:  either the regime tightens internal regulations, or it  begins to implement further reforms, as was the case, for example,  with the hijabs or the resignation of the head of the Central Bank.  If external intervention occurs, the scenarios could vary:  consolidation around the leadership is possible amid a general  external threat, as well as negative consequences, such as targeted  political assassinations or a threat to the current leadership," the  expert believes. However, as the orientalist pointed out, although  the protests have a broad geographic reach, they are primarily  occurring not in large cities, but among rural populations. "There is  a protest movement in the capital, but it is small and primarily  related to economic issues. This is precisely what complicates the  leadership's response, as the protests are erupting in sparsely  populated regions where security forces are limited. However, given  the experience and flexibility of the current Iranian leadership,  they will likely be able to quell the protests and reach a new social  contract," Melkonyan noted.

The expert also noted that Armenia will need to be prepared for other  developments. He noted this includes a possible refugee flow and the  spillover of conflicts from one area to another, the so-called  "spillover effect." "One of the most radical scenarios in this case  is an attempt to exploit the ethnic card. In this context, the most  pressing option could be the use of the Azerbaijani population for  separatist purposes, accompanied by a nationalist discourse and  aimed, among other things, at Armenia," the expert clarified.

Furthermore, Melkonyan noted that Armenia borders Azerbaijani  provinces in Iran, which, he said, creates additional risks. He also  noted the risk of economic issues, given that approximately 30% of  Armenia's exports pass through Iranian territory. "This is one of two  transport arteries for Armenia, and in this context, any internal  unrest in Iran could lead to serious economic consequences. In this  case, Armenia will need to develop strategies to overcome them in  advance," Melkonyan concluded. 

As ArmInfo previously reported, Western media reports indicate that  protests have already spread to more than 90 towns and cities in  Iran, with over 1,000 protesters detained and 36 people killed.