Armenian expert labels US-Israeli strikes on Iran as grand  geoeconomic calculus

ArmInfo. The US-Israeli strikes on Iran should be viewed not only from a military-security perspective, but also from a geoeconomic  perspective. From this viewpoint, the key issue is the control over energy flows and the redistribution of global influence through their  management, as stated by Vahe Davtyan, an expert in cross-border transport and energy projects, political scientist, and PhD, on his  Telegram channel.

According to him, the first direction is the Strait of Hormuz,  through which approximately 20-25% of global oil supplies and up to  30% of liquefied natural gas pass. "This is a kind of 'choke point'  for the global energy market. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block  the strait. If Washington achieves regime change in Iran and ensures  ratification of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,  Tehran's ability to impede freedom of navigation will be  significantly limited legally. Such a configuration fits perfectly  with the US strategy in the oil sector," the expert noted.

In this context, Davtyan is confident that the Venezuelan direction  should also be taken into account. He believes that Washington's  increased activity around Caracas is effectively aimed at  establishing controlled access to Venezuela's colossal oil resources  and strengthening the US position as a key exporter and market  regulator. The control over Hormuz and Venezuelan resources  form a  new configuration for managing global supplies.

 "The second vector is the Caspian Basin. The emergence of a new  political reality in Iran could prompt the ratification of the  Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea and create new  legal and political grounds for advancing US regional interests. The  TRIPP project, which should be considered as part of a broader  geostrategy, plays a significant role in these calculations. If the  legal preconditions for constructing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline  emerge, the United States will have the opportunity to strengthen its  influence in Central Asia, contain Russia, and influence the  diversification strategy of hydrocarbon exports to the European Union  through TRIPP. The declared corridor width of 500 meters already  points to a significantly larger project configuration," the  political scientist added.

According to him, the third vector is China, as Iran remains one of  Beijing's key oil suppliers. In this regard, Davtyan continued,  pressure on Tehran fits seamlessly into the logic of the US-Chinese  geoeconomic standoff. Control over oil flows means influencing  China's industrial and financial stability.

Finally, there's the dollar factor. Control over oil markets is one  of the central mechanisms for strengthening the US's primary  geopolitical instrument-the dollar. Over the past five years, the  dollar's share of international transactions has declined from 61% to  41%. Strengthening the US's position in oil markets could slow or  even halt this trend. Dollarization of energy flows means the  restoration of financial leverage.

"Against the backdrop of  Israeli strikes, the oil price has already  risen by approximately 3%, approaching $73 per barrel. This is only  the initial market reaction. However, the fundamental question is not  short-term price volatility, but rather who will control commodity  corridors and the financial flows derived from them.  Therefore, what  is happening should be interpreted as an attempt at a large-scale  reconfiguration. This is not just about Iran, but about the  redistribution of control over the global geoeconomic architecture,"  Davtyan concluded. -