The BTC pipeline and the Iranian shadow: Energy infrastructure as a target

ArmInfo.According to turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan, Turkey and Azerbaijan are currently discussing a scenario in which the war against Iran could expand, targeting not only  the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries, but also the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. This pipeline supplies oil to Israel and is critical to the regional strategy of Azerbaijan and Turkey. 

"It is no coincidence that Turkey has recently been making consistent  efforts to ease US-Iranian tensions and end hostilities. Azerbaijan,  for example, is falsifying official statistics to at least conceal  the fact that it supplies approximately 45% of Israeli oil. Thus,  until 2024, the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan  consistently listed Israel as one of the five main destinations for  Azerbaijani oil exports (approximately 5- 10% of all exports).  However, in 2025, the "Israel" line item simply disappeared from the  published export data. Thanks to Azerbaijan's statistical "magic  wand" (incidentally, the same wand is used to inflate Azerbaijan's  population by approximately twofold), oil supplied to Israel  disappears from the statistics, although its volumes have actually  increased since 2022. Oil arriving in Israel is now " relabeled" as  oil exported to Turkey, although technically this could be used to  report oil arriving in all countries, since it is transported from  Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, and then to other countries.  However, all other countries are listed separately and appear in the  statistics, with the exception of Israel," the political scientist  noted. He added that, in response to inquiries, Azerbaijani  authorities claim they bear no responsibility for the destination of  Azerbaijani oil from the port of Ceyhan.

"This statistical deception may work for information and propaganda  purposes, but not for Iran's military- political leadership,"  Varuzhan Geghamyan noted.