Expert: For Iran, Armenia is not only neighbor but also strategic  buffer

ArmInfo.  For over 2,500 years, Armenia has remained a priority for Iran's interests in the Caucasus. For Iran, Armenia is a window to Europe, while Iran is Armenia's  gateway to Asia and the Persian Gulf. This is stated in an article by  Mikhail Aharonyan, an orientalist expert at the International  Information and Analytical Center (IIAC)

The expert notes that the modern Republic of Armenia and the Islamic  Republic of Iran are building harmonious, mutually beneficial  cultural, trade, economic, and military-political relations. "It is  in this context that Tehran's painful reaction to the so-called  'Zangezur Corridor' or 'Trump Road' should be viewed. In Iran, such  projects are perceived not simply as infrastructure initiatives, but  as geopolitical tools capable of altering the balance of power in the  South Caucasus and weakening direct ties between Tehran and Yerevan.  For Iran, Armenia is not only a neighbor but also a strategic buffer,  allowing it to curb the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan and  circumvent regional isolation. Therefore, any attempts to change the  status quo provoke a harsh reaction," Aharonyan believes.

According to him, Yerevan, for its part, understands the value of  relations with Iran, but is forced to balance between various centers  of power-Russia, the West, and regional players. The expert is  confident that abandoning transport projects is impossible, but  ignoring Tehran's interests is also risky. The orientalist believes  that in the medium term, the parties will reach a compromise model:  any new transport routes will be implemented taking into account  Iranian interests and without harming Armenian-Iranian trade.

"Thus, Armenian-Iranian relations are not just neighbors, but a  historically established alliance based on mutual benefit, cultural  affinity, and pragmatic geopolitics. And despite external pressure  and new regional projects, this connection, proven over millennia, is  unlikely to be severed. It is important to emphasize that  Armenian-Iranian relations today have not only a historical and  cultural foundation, but also a measurable economic and energy one,"  the expert continued.

To support his assertions, the orientalist cited statistics.  According to him, according to recent data, trade turnover between  Armenia and Iran has been steadily growing and has already approached  the $1 billion mark. In 2024, it amounted to approximately $737  million, an increase of 6.5% compared to the previous year, and in  2025, the two sides have effectively reached the target of $1  billion.

"However, the structure of this trade is extremely specific: Armenia  imports significantly more than it exports. In 2025, the negative  trade balance reached almost $600 million, highlighting the Armenian  economy's dependence on Iranian resources. Energy remains a key  element of cooperation. The strategic "gas for electricity" program  has been in effect since 2009 and has been extended until 2030. Under  this program, Iran supplies Armenia with hundreds of millions of  cubic meters of gas annually. Thus, in 2024, the volume of supplies  exceeded 440 million cubic meters, and in 2025, almost 476 million  cubic meters, demonstrating steady growth. In return, Armenia exports  electricity: in 2024 alone, supplies exceeded 370 million kWh, which  is higher than the average of previous years.

The unique feature of the agreement is the fixed formula: 1 cubic  meter of Iranian gas = 3 kWh of Armenian electricity, making this  model one of the most sustainable barter schemes in the region,"  Aharonyan noted.

At the same time, he is confident that the potential for cooperation  is far from exhausted, as the Iran- Armenia gas pipeline's capacity  is estimated at approximately 1 billion cubic meters of gas per year,  but is only partially utilized. According to the orientalist, this  means that with the necessary political will, the parties could  significantly increase the volume of cooperation.

He then drew attention to the human dimension of relations, noting  that in 2024 alone, more than 276,000 Armenian citizens visited Iran,  and approximately 176,000 Iranians visited Armenia, with the flow of  Iranian tourists increasing by approximately 20%. "In fact, Iran is  not just a neighbor for Armenia today, but a critically important  economic partner. Its share accounts for approximately 5% of  Armenia's imports, while exports to Iran remain limited and do not  exceed 1%, which further highlights the asymmetry of the  relationship. In terms of energy, the dependence is even more  obvious: despite the dominance of Russian gas (over 80% of the  market), the Iranian route plays the role of a strategic alternative,  allowing Yerevan to maintain a minimal level of diversification," the  orientalist continued.

Aharonyan believes that under these conditions, a complex  architecture of interests is emerging in which neither side can act  unilaterally. "Most likely, in the medium term, Armenia and Iran will  move not to open confrontation, but to a model of covert coordination  of interests. Yerevan will strive to implement transportation  projects, including the so-called 'Zangezur Corridor,' but in a  configuration that will not lead to Iran's strategic isolation. For  Tehran, it is fundamentally important to maintain a land connection  with Armenia as the only Christian and relatively neutral partner in  the South Caucasus," the orientalist asserts.

He believes that the loss of this corridor would mean increased  geopolitical pressure from Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as the  potential emergence of infrastructure controlled by pro-Western  forces directly on Iran's northern border.

The expert emphasized that this is precisely why Iran is consistently  increasing its presence in the region not only diplomatically but  also in terms of infrastructure. According to him, this involves  developing transportation routes within the international North-South  corridor, modernizing border infrastructure, and deepening energy  cooperation with Armenia. "Armenia, in turn, finds itself in a  classic 'geopolitical nodal point,' where the interests of several  players-Russia, Iran, the EU, the US, Turkey, and China-intersect.   Under these circumstances, its strategy is not to choose one side,  but to try to extract maximum benefit from the competition between  them. However, Iran remains the partner that doesn't impose  ideological conditions on Yerevan and doesn't demand a radical  transformation of its foreign policy. This makes Armenian-Iranian  relations more stable compared to other areas where the level of  political turbulence is significantly higher," the expert believes.

Thus, he continued, despite external pressure and the emergence of  new infrastructure initiatives, the fundamental logic of  Armenian-Iranian relations remains unchanged: it is an alliance based  not on declarations, but on mutual need.

From his words, based on the above, it can be said with confidence  that Armenian-Iranian relations are not simply a matter of historical  inertia or cultural affinity, but a coldly calculated geopolitical  calculation.

"For Iran, Armenia has several key significances. First, it is the  only land gateway to the Caucasus and beyond to Eurasia, not  controlled by Turkey or pro-Western forces. Through Armenia, Tehran  gains the ability to circumvent regional isolation and maintain  alternative trade and logistics routes.

Second, Armenia serves as a buffer zone, preventing the formation of  a unified Turkic corridor from Turkey to the Caspian Sea and further  to Central Asia. Strengthening this corridor directly contradicts  Iran's strategic interests and threatens its position in the region,"  the expert noted.

Third, he added, it is a tool for energy and economic  diversification, allowing Iran to export resources and integrate into  regional markets despite sanctions pressure.

Fourth, Aharonyan believes, Armenia is a politically convenient  partner, not involved in anti-Iranian alliances and making no  ideological demands, making cooperation stable and predictable.

"Finally, for Iran, Armenia is an element of strategic depth in the  northern direction, allowing Tehran to maintain influence in the  South Caucasus and prevent competing forces from completely  dominating. This is why, for Iran, Armenia is not just a neighbor,  but a critical element of the regional security and economic  architecture. In this context, any projects that could weaken or  sever this connection are perceived by Tehran as a direct threat to  national interests. Therefore, regardless of external pressure, the  Armenian- Iranian alliance will persist-not as a tribute to the past,  but as a necessity dictated by the geopolitics of the present,"  Aharonyan concluded.