Instability in Iran to have negative effect on Armenia - expert 

ArmInfo.The APRI Armenia research center is analyzing possible scenarios for Armenia in the context of  events unfolding around the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI).  Currently, the most negative scenario for the country would be instability in Iran. Political scientist and APRI Armenia research fellow Sergey Melkonyan stated this in an interview with Civilnet.

He explained that regardless of the regime in Iran, instability in  the country could lead to a humanitarian crisis, disruption of supply  chains, and energy problems. "It's clear that, no matter how the  situation develops, if even a center of power in the form of the  Islamic Republic remains in Iran, attitudes toward American activity  in the region will become more hostile and aggressive. This applies  both to the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity  (TRIPP) and to cooperation on other critical infrastructure.   Armenia's task in this situation is to respond to these concerns not  with words, but with actions. Even the slightest increase in the  likelihood of risk to Iran could provoke a harsh reaction, for which  we are not prepared. Unlike us, Iran has a much longer memory,"  Melkonyan emphasized.

Regarding the possible involvement of other countries in the conflict  against Iran, the political scientist ruled out Azerbaijan's active  participation in a conflict with Iran at this stage, even through the  provision of airspace. In his opinion, Azerbaijan is not prepared to  suffer the same losses as Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, or Oman.

"Nevertheless, they could take steps such as closing humanitarian air  corridors or increasing their military presence on the border.  Recently, reports emerged that Azerbaijan is amassing forces near the  border.  Therefore, these are the only possible countermeasures," the  political scientist believes. As for the US, Melkonyan said, they are  seeking to save face, and to do so, they need to ensure regime change  in Iran, as well as destroy its nuclear infrastructure and ballistic  missile arsenal. Meanwhile, Israel, the expert noted, has an entirely  different goal: the complete destruction of the Islamic Republic of  Iran, a repeat of the Syrian scenario. "For Israel, the Iranian  regime is only an interim objective, while the ultimate goal is much  broader," Melkonyan emphasized.

Speaking about Russia's possible actions in this situation, the  expert noted that Russia has no obligation to provide military  assistance to Iran under the strategic partnership agreement.  Furthermore, Melkonyan noted, Russia is limited by its resources and  can only offer the air defense systems it needs.

"Furthermore, Russia can provide upgraded Shahed (kamikaze drones -  ed.) and reconnaissance assets. In all other respects, its  capabilities are limited. The final component in this context could  be maintaining the population's vitality while the conflict ends or  decelerates. To control the situation, it is necessary to monitor not  only the provinces with security resources but also the streets to  prevent protests. Not only Russia but also China could provide  support in this," the political scientist concluded.

As a reminder, on the morning of February 28, the US and Israel  attacked Iran. In response, Iran launched strikes against US bases in  the Middle East. As a result of US-Israeli aggression, Iran's Supreme  Leader Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking Iranian military  officials were killed. The US has so far confirmed the deaths of six  of its soldiers. An Israeli strike on a girls' school in a southern  Iranian province killed, according to the latest figures, 170  students and their teachers, and wounded dozens more.

According to HRANA, the total number of civilian deaths since the  conflict began on February 28 has reached 1,097, including 181  children under the age of ten. Another 880 fatality reports are  currently being verified and classified. The number of civilian  casualties since February 28 has reached 5,402, including 100  children.