Iran`s lessons refute capitulation being served to Armenian people on  `shiny platters` - expert

ArmInfo. What's the point of following the ongoing war in Iran if Armenia won't draw any conclusions from it? This is the question posed by Turkologist  Varuzhan Geghamyan.

On his Facebook page, the expert notes that very useful lessons can  be learned from the events in Iran if one follows them not as a news  feed, but pays attention to the strategic developments. From this  perspective, at least three conclusions are already clearly visible,  which are very relevant for Armenia, including in the context of the  defeatist propaganda currently being waged among the Armenian people.

In particular, the first lesson is that not everything in war is  determined by material advantages. The United States and Israel  clearly and significantly outperform Iran in their military-technical  capabilities, which ensures the latter's tactical success. "However,  tactical success does not necessarily imply strategic victory.  The  American-Israeli military operation, which most likely should have  been completed in a few days (like the first version of the Russian  Central Military District), has lasted more than three weeks without  a clear strategy for a victorious conclusion. Competent Iranian  resistance, as well as a strategic approach to the war's outcome,  allow Tehran to compensate for the military-technical imbalance and,  despite numerous losses, not only continue resistance but also  gradually dictate the new course of the war," the political scientist  notes.

The second lesson he emphasized is that the foundation of Iranian  resistance is a clear strategic approach, which has not changed  significantly despite numerous losses among the military and  political elite in recent weeks. This resistance is based, among  other things, on an asymmetric (disproportionate) operational  concept, which entails inflicting maximum damage on the enemy through  precise targeting and the use of available resources. "A clear  example of this can be seen these days in the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States, which possesses the world's most powerful navy,  and its allies are suffering the heaviest strategic blow from cheap  Iranian drones, fast boats, naval bombs, and short-range missiles,  which are dictating new rules of the game in the Strait of Hormuz.  This is enough to undermine the global economy and give Iran a  powerful negotiating tool, which even led to the partial lifting of  US sanctions on Iranian oil," the expert continued, adding that the  concept of disproportionality has other manifestations (for example,  targeting US allies, which effectively increases the scale of the  conflict and, therefore, the cost of continuing the war). In other  words, Iran is not playing the game that is being forced upon it (and  in which it will lose), but is gradually imposing its own game on  others. And at the heart of this new game lies absolute advantage,  which is often overlooked by many.

The third lesson can be traced back to historical facts. When  Napoleon attempted to quickly conquer Russia in the early 19th  century, he took many factors into account, except for one: weather  conditions. After the defeat of Napoleon and other Western armies on  Russian soil, there is often talk of "General Frost" (referring to  the extremely cold winters of the Russian world and the impossibility  of conducting military operations in them), who, like an invisible  force, helped the Russian side win. "If we apply this artistic  analogy to Iran, we could say that Iran has its own general: the  General of Geography. Iranian strategy is based on a complete  understanding of the country's geography and its wise use.  Figuratively speaking, the Strait of Hormuz and the Arab countries  are right next to Iran, so pressure can be exerted on them even with  a slingshot, a minimal set of weapons in the arsenal. This  calculation underlies Iranian strategy: even if all of Iran's  long-range missiles disappear, it's still possible to find a small  boat that will create global problems in the Strait of Hormuz,  forcing everyone to consider the Iranian factor," the political  scientist believes.

He notes that the above is only the first page of the "open textbook"  that is being written for the Armenian people every day. "There are  other instructive points, but before we get to them, consider for a  moment what would have happened if the de facto leadership of Armenia  had... "...demonstrated strategic thinking during the 2020 war. I  think you can guess that the outcome would have been completely  different. Artsakh and all of Armenia. These lessons are still  relevant today, and they certainly refute the constant capitulation  that is served to us on shiny plates," the Turkologist concluded.